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UM E-Theses Collection (澳門大學電子學位論文庫)

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Title

Enhancing trend following with multiple technical signals

English Abstract

ENHANCING TREND FOLLOWING WITH MULTIPLE TECHNICAL SIGNALS by ZHANG JIANWEN Thesis Supervisor, Assistant Professor, SI Yain-Whar (Lawrence) Software Engineering Trend following (TF) is an investment or trading strategy in technical analysis. Investors and traders enter the stock market when they think a trend is established based on their pre-defined rule and follow it, and quit when they believe that a trend is over. Finding the correct trend with proper rules is crucial in TF. One popular way to handle this is by setting a pair of pre-defined thresholds called P&Q, calculated based on the close price of a security. However, TF based on P&Q sometimes not working well for some securities. In this thesis, we proposed an enhancing TF with multiple technical signals to improve the performance of TF based on P&Q. We take advantage of a set of technical indicators such as Simple and Exponential Moving Averages, Moving Average Convergence / Divergence and Relative Strength Index, etc., giving them weights and combining them with TF based on P&Q model to help making decisions on whether it is a good trend or not. A Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm helps us to find the best P&Q thresholds and the weights to each technical signals. Experiments conducted on indices and stocks show promising results.

Issue date

2015.

Author

張劍文

Faculty

Faculty of Science and Technology

Department

Department of Computer and Information Science

Degree

M.Sc.

Subject

Investment analysis -- Mathematical models

Securities -- Mathematical models

Supervisor

Si, Yain Whar

Files In This Item

Full-text (Intranet only)

Location
1/F Zone C
Library URL
991000758959706306